The 2022 NFL Season is almost here. I already released my predictions for Week 1 of the NFL season, and now it’s time for the full gambit. Months ago, I predicted for myself the outcome of every single NFL game this season, predicting out the records of each team and seeing where each would rank. Now it is time to use that data to have a full prediction suite for the 2022-2023 NFL season! Let’s get started!
AFC East:
1. Buffalo Bills (15-2)
This is a bold record prediction, I know. This is a revenge tour for the Bills after the heart breaking loss to the Chiefs in the playoffs last season, and therefore I gave them the edge in a lot of close games due to the extra fight and desire. I think the Bills have a high power offense this year that looks nearly impossible to stop in the regular season and even looks decent into the playoffs, although I envision it getting figured out better by then. They have a good defense to back it up, and this team will do quite well this season. I have them rattling off wins at the Rams, vs the Titans, and at the Dolphins, before catching a loss in Baltimore. Then they really heat up, going on a tear and winning 11 straight before the Bengals put them back in check. Tack on a week 18 win over the Pats, and that makes a 15-2 record. This includes wins at home against the Packers and most notably on the road in Arrowhead against the Chiefs.
2. New England Patriots (9-8)
Yea, yea, yea… Call me biased, call me just a fan, whatever. I am not a Tua believer, so I am low on the Dolphins. I did my absolute best to go game-by-game and predict honestly, and this is what I came out to. I surprised myself a bit too if we are being honest. I am not a huge Mac Jones truther either, I think he is the epitome of an average MAYBE slightly above average QB, but I also think he has a pretty high floor. He doesn’t make bad mistakes (yet) and he should be a good stand in QB if the pieces around him are good. That being said… They aren’t. This team is essentially average, if anything a bit under average. However, they play the very bad Jets twice and have some games that I think they have the edge to win – thanks to Belichick.
This is their schedule before their bye week, I think they will pounce on an uncertain offense in Pittsburgh, and they get to play Cleveland before Watson is back. They enter the bye at 5-4 with hopes that they could go on a run.
Surely enough, they do start out by winning 2 out of the break, albeit a close game in Minnesota. A pair of losses to far better teams starts a rough stretch of games that technically could end in 7 straight losses to end the season for the Pats. However, I think Bill gets the best of former OC Josh McDaniels in Vegas and I think they pick up a home win against Miami before getting disassembled by the Bills in the final week.
3. Miami Dolphins (8-9)
As previously stated, I am not a Tua believer… But man does he have a good team around him. I really think had Watson gotten traded to Miami instead of Cleveland, this team had the talent to compete with Buffalo for the best team in the AFC. That being said, I have them finishing below .500… I did not expect for them to finish this bad, but like I said, I did my predictions game by game with 0 bias towards another game.
I have the Dolphins starting strong with a home win over New England in week 1, and then stumbling a bit with 3 straight losses to good teams in the Ravens, Bills, and Bengals. Then they finish with 5 wins in 6 games, only dropping a close game against Pittsburgh. This brings them into their bye at 6-4, in good shape to battle for a wild card berth. However, in my game-by-game predictions, it was the second half where they fell apart.
After an easy home win against the Texans, the Dolphins have a rough road trip going to San Fran, LA, and then Buffalo. Then they have the Packers at home, and then it’s off to a snow game in New England. They close out with the Jets at home, but by that point, it’s already too late.
I will admit that this season for the Dolphins will very much hinge on Tua. If he makes strides forward, they could be a fringe playoff team. If he doesn’t, they could even finish below this mark. This is do or die for Tua.
4. New York Jets (2-15)
Not much needs to be said here. This is, at best, a growth year for the Jets. They are hoping they can get improvements from their young QB Zach Wilson, and they are hoping to develop some other young players around him to be ready to compete in future years. The Jets will be just plain bad this season. I have them picking up 2 wins this year, a home game against the Lions, and a road win against the Seahawks. That leaves them ending the season a remarkable 0-13 against AFC teams, while being 2-2 against NFC teams. They tie with 4 other teams for the worst record in the NFL in my projections. So who knows, maybe if the strength of schedule goes their way, they could end with a top-3 pick here.
AFC South:
1. Indianapolis Colts (14-3)
Colts fans would very much like a redo on last season. This team should easily have made the playoffs, but they were narrowly missed due to poor play by QB Carson Wentz among other things. This season, they brought in veteran QB Matt Ryan to stabilize the position, and combine that with a great defense, great O line, and one of the most explosive running backs in football, that is a combination to win a lot of games. In my simulations, I had them winning 14 in fact, 2nd only to the Bills win total. They did however pick up 3 losses in my predictions, all on the road. A loss in Denver, a loss in Tennessee, and a loss in Vegas. All 3 of these should be close games and hard fought losses, and the latest of which comes in week 10, leaving their season to end on an enormous win streak. There’s no shortage of big wins in their schedule either, as I have them getting a home win against the Chiefs in week 3. They also take down the Eagles, Cowboys, and Chargers in the second half of the season. This team will be dangerous in the playoffs too, so watch out.
2. Tennessee Titans (12-5)
I was very surprised when I got through projecting the games and saw that the Titans had won 12 games and snuck into the playoffs… Let’s get this straight. I am not high on the Titans like I was last year. I don’t think Tannehill is the guy. I don’t think their defense is that good. I think trading away AJ Brown was stupid. That being said, King Henry is still an absolute force and can win you games by sheer will, and they do still have decent weapons around Tannehill. Hopefully Malik can develop quickly so that next offseason they can make the switch to him. For now though, the 2022 season. In my predictions, I had the Titans picking up losses to the Bills, Chiefs, Broncos, Cowboys, and one of the games against the Colts. I did have them winning against a couple good teams, home wins against the Colts and Bengals, and road wins against the Packers and Eagles. I could very well be giving the Titans JUST a little too much credit, and it could result in them losing some close games and instead finishing more like 9-8.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14)
The Jags decided to spend money this offseason. They are getting Ettiene back. They got rid of Urban. Trevor Lawrence has another year of experience under his belt. Still, it doesn’t feel to me like this team is really ready to win games yet. I may get proven wrong, but I only have them winning 3 games. Hey 3 is better than 2, Jacksonville! At least you beat the Texans! All joking aside, the 3 wins that I had them picking up were; home against the Texans and Giants, and on the road against the Jets. I also had them losing some games that they certainly COULD win if they took a bit of a step forward, on the road against Washington, Detroit and Houston. I do think the future is starting to look a bit brighter in Jacksonville, but it just isn’t quite there for me yet.
4. Houston Texans (2-15)
There isn’t much positive I can say about the Texans to be honest. They have a good enough QB in Davis Mills, hopefully he can take steps forward this year. Hopefully some of the young rookies and prospects can start to develop for them. Besides that, I would be flipping Brandin Cooks for a draft pick at the trade deadline and any other veterans I could. This team is bad and it’s pretty far away from being good again in my opinion. I gave them a couple squeak them out wins against the Giants and the Jaguars, but even those aren’t definite. Sorry Texans fans, this one is going to be rough. Pray for that #1 pick.
AFC North:
1. Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)
The Bengals broke out last season almost entirely due to the breakout of Joe Burrow, who lead them to a super bowl appearance in his second season and was absolutely phenomenal in the second half and the playoffs, despite taking a metric ton of sacks. This offseason they went out and tried to fix up the O line, hoping that they could lower the number of hits their franchise QB takes. Time will tell how that works, but after seeing what he could do amid the sacks, I am in on the Bengals taking a step forward in the regular season this year. I have them picking up 13 wins and only dropping 4 games, at division rival Steelers, in Tennessee, at home against the Chiefs, and finally on the road in Tampa. I think this team is going to be good for the foreseeable future and I think they will have some fun divisional races with the Watson-led Browns and Lamar-led Ravens in the next few years. I will give them the upper hand and the division to lose, however.
2. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Just one win lower than the Bengals is a team that got beat by them twice in my projections, the Ravens. The Ravens are a bit of a strange team, capable of beating pretty much anybody in the NFL on a good day, but capable of losing to the upper two-thirds of the league on a bad day. My predictions reflect that, having them win some big games against good teams (Week 4, home vs. BUF; Week 13, home vs. DEN) but also losing some winnable games against teams they are on par with (Week 9 on the road in New Orleans; Week 15 in Cleveland). This team is very dependent on Lamar and if he is able to take a step forward. The Ravens defense is good and will keep them in games as long as Lamar is able to do something. If he is able to get his passing improved a bit this season and not just run the ball every second play, I think this team could be good. For me, I just don’t see that happening. I am not a believer in Lamar’s passing ability.
3. Cleveland Browns (8-9)
The Browns will be the Browns, won’t they? Man, they shocked the NFL world with the Deshaun Watson trade and contract, giving a man a boat-load of guaranteed money when he at the time had 20+ civil cases pending against him is just stunning. Unfortunately, I doubt we will know this season if it was a smart move or not. Watson is suspended for the first 11 games, so we will only get to see 5 games from him this year, just enough to try and get the dust off of his arm. Unless they go out and get Jimmy G for the first 11 weeks to keep them competitive, or if Brissett plays well above his normal level of play, this will not be a playoff team, so we will not get to see the playoff Deshaun. I have the Browns playing a middling 8-9, although I have them going 3-8 in Watson’s absence, and 5-1 when he returns. Just enough to keep Cleveland fans hopeful so that they can be disappointed all over again next year.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-11)
The Steelers have arguably the best defense in this division, and it’s for that reason only that I have them at 6-11. They lost Big Ben to retirement this offseason, and instead of bringing in a veteran stop-gap, they brought in the draft-disappointment Mitch Tribusky, who I am actually higher on than most people, but let’s be real… How much is he really going to provide? They also drafted QB Kenny Pickett out of Pitt, and the hometown kid would be a great storyline if he were able to settle in as their next franchise QB, but he has had very little time to get acclimated, and I am not expecting much of anything in year 1, if he even plays. I am expecting a run-first offense with very minimal passing, and a defense to keep them in games. This team will keep most games close and won’t get blown out a ton, but to me it does not have what it takes to finish games.
AFC West:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Saved the best division for last! Man, this division is good this year and going to be fun to watch, likely for years to come. The Chiefs are the top dogs though, and it will take quite a team to de-throne them in my mind. Mahomes may have lost Tyreek Hill but he still has Travis Kelce to throw to, and he added JuJu and Skyy Moore, at least one of which will have a very good season this year. I am not sure which, but one will be a top-30 WR. Not to mention they have Andy Reid calling plays, I find it hard to bet against this team in any matchup. They can go toe-to-toe with anybody and they will. I did have them picking up 5 losses this year, three in the course of 4 weeks early in the season.
After this rough stretch of games, the Chiefs will be 3-3, and everyone will be calling into question whether or not they can’t do it without Hill, as the wide receiving core hasn’t been enough to this point. However, the next week after this they will travel to San Fran and put on a show against the very good 49ers defense, blowing them out and putting a quiet to the doubt. Then they will go into their bye week and coming out of it will face Tennessee and Jacksonville at home. Neither game will be close. Unfortunately for them, They will pick up a loss the following week at the Chargers, but then will rattle of 6 straight wins, with 2 of them coming against the division rival Broncos, leaving them at 12-4 entering the final week, with the division locked up. That is why in week 18 I have them losing to the Raiders, as they rest their starters and prepare for the playoffs.
2. Denver Broncos (11-6)
Speaking of those Denver Broncos, they are going to be a much-improved team this season, led by new QB Russell Wilson. I have them losing both games to the Chiefs, but only picking up 4 other losses as they come in at 11-6, one game below the Chiefs. This is a controversial take, and we will get there in a bit. Javonte Williams is going to be an excellent running back this season, for fantasy and for the Broncos as well. Russ has plenty of weapons to throw to, with Jeudy, Sutton, and co. And don’t forget at tight end, one of my fantasy breakout candidates, Albert O. He is likely to catch a lot of TDs in the red zone this year, and will be primed for a massive breakout in the absence of Noah Fant. So, what other 4 losses do I have them picking up this year? Well, I have them dropping games on the road at both other divisional teams, the Chargers and the Raiders, and I also have them losing on the road against the Rams and the Ravens. I however have them beating the 49ers and the Cardinals, and a winner-goes-home matchup in week 18 as well…
3. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
Bet you could of guessed that week 18 matchup that I have the Broncos winning. Yup, the Chargers. Last season if you don’t remember, the Chargers went to OT in Week 18 against the Raiders with the strangest win-and-in scenario of all time. Whichever team won was into the playoffs, but if they tied, they would both be in. With very little time left in OT, instead of accepting a tie, the Chargers went for the win, and when they came up short, the Raiders had no mercy and got the win against them. The Chargers narrowly missed the playoffs after a lot of hype around the team. This year, it’s even more hype. They added some extra star power, and were able to retain their key free agents. There is hype by a lot of people that this team could be a super bowl contender. So, why do I have them at 10-7? I don’t buy into the idea that Herbert is a top-3 QB in the league somehow. He has done nothing to prove himself in my mind, he doesn’t win big games, and he doesn’t YET have that clutch factor. For that reason, I have them losing some close games, and in Week 18, when it is a win-and-in scenario for them versus the Broncos, I will take the team with the veteran QB in Russell Wilson who has won a super bowl and been to 2. He has a lot more clutch factor than a kid with very little NFL experience, and I think it will come out in full force. Sorry Chargers fans, but I have you missing the playoffs on the final week again this year…
4. Las Vegas Raiders (7-10)
A lot of places have the Raiders going 9-8, 10-7, sometimes even better. I have even seen some people who legitimately think they could also be division contenders. I just don’t see it. They won 10 games last season with a lot of luck. Yes, Carr is good, but he isn’t great. They are bringing in McDaniels as the head coach, who did not have great success as a head coach in his time in Denver. Do I think he can be a good head coach in time? Yes. Do I think this team is good? Mostly, yes. But I think they take a step back this year unfortunately, and try to regear for next season. They have a brutally hard division to play in, and playing 2 games a year against each of the above 3 teams is a tall order. Adams will be helpful for sure, and I am excited to see the connection between him and Carr. I just don’t buy them as even a fringe playoff team this year.
AFC Playoff Seeding:
- Buffalo Bills (15-2)
- Indianapolis Colts (14-3)
- Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)
- Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
- Tennessee Titans (12-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
- Denver Broncos (11-6)
Notes on playoff teams:
Don’t forget, this is all based on me going through each game and picking an outcome of said game and then looking at the results afterwards. If I were to have picked my playoff teams without going through the schedule, I don’t think the Titans would be in the playoffs, and I think the Chargers would likely be in their spot. However, due only to their schedules and the differences in how hard their divisions are, these are the records I came up with.
Close to the playoffs:
Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) – Losing in Week 18 to miss the playoffs in my projection, this team could certainly make the playoffs if a couple weeks go better for them than I envision, or if a couple teams ahead of them slip. This team certainly has the capability to make the playoffs if the chips fall right.
New England Patriots (9-8) – Yeah, I actually don’t see a feasible way this team makes the postseason. The only way would be if Mac Jones takes a MASSIVE step forward, and I just don’t see that as possible. If I were to project a record for the Pats without looking at their schedule, I would go more like 7-10, maybe 8-9.
Miami Dolphins (8-9) – This team is actually more likely to make the playoffs than the above Patriots in my mind. The Dolphins certainly could out-perform this projection if Tua makes a big step forward, I just don’t envision that happening this season.
Cleveland Browns (8-9) – The path to the playoffs for the Browns could come in a couple ways. One way would be trading for Jimmy G to get them through the first 11 weeks before Watson returns, and he could certainly guide them to a better record than 3-8 over that stretch. Replace 3-8 with even 5-6 and they would end my projection at 10-7, one game out of a playoff spot. The other possible path would be if Brissett is able to keep them as roughly a .500 club until Watson returns, which is possible considering all the talent around him on this team.
AFC Wild Card Round:
#7. Denver Broncos (11-6) @ #2. Indianapolis Colts (14-3)
Give me the better O line and better defense here. Some interesting parallels in this matchup, Peyton Manning’s two teams, and also 2 former NFC QBs now in the AFC facing off with new squads. An interesting matchup, but I will take the Colts. Ryan will do enough to win this one.
#6. Baltimore Ravens (12-5) @ #3. Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)
The Bengals beat them twice in the regular season and gets the threepeat here in the playoffs. The Bengals are just better. Joe Burrow knows how to clutch up and will his team to a win. I don’t think this game is really all that close so it won’t be needed, but if this game gets close at the end, he will do what he does best and find a way to get the W.
#5. Tennessee Titans (12-5) @ #4. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Talk about a blowout. The Titans shouldn’t even be in this game… Tannehill will get embarrassed in this game with 3 picks and it will signal the end of his time in Tennessee. Kansas City wins this one handily and storms into the next round.
AFC Divisional Round:
#4. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) @ #1. Buffalo Bills (15-2)
The Bills got their revenge on the Chiefs in the regular season of this revenge tour. Unfortunately for them, I don’t have them getting it again. The Chiefs barely had to try in the wild card round, and while the Bills had the bye, both teams were prepping for this game. Bonus very wild and bold prediction: The Bills win the toss and get the ball in OT, but fail to seal it, and the Chiefs win it.
#3. Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) @ #2. Indianapolis Colts (14-3)
This will be a good game for sure. This was definitely the hardest game for me to predict. I obviously am a fan of Joe Burrow’s clutch factor, and we don’t really need to talk about Matt Ryan’s clutch factor… But the Colts team is just better all around. The Colts defense is fierce and as much as I like Mixon, they will shut him down and make him a non-factor. Close game here for sure, but I give the edge to the Colts. Another bonus wild prediction: a key TD for the Colts is caught by a WR they acquire at the trade deadline, possibly Brandin Cooks or Jarvis Landry.
AFC Championship Game:
#4. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) @ #2. Indianapolis Colts (14-3)
Another very close game, but the Colts are rolling. The Chiefs just squeaked one out against the Bills, and just like last year when they came up short against the Bengals the following week, they will come up just short against the Colts. Jonathan Taylor will run circles around the Kansas City run defense and be the undisputed MVP of the game, and all Ryan will have to do is not throw picks and move the ball down the field for him. To the Super Bowl the Colts go.
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Tennessee Titans, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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