Let’s start off with the teams that have the least to spend. According to my projections, there is only one team in the majors that is projected to start the offseason already over budget for next season. The San Diego Padres.
| Team | 2022 Current | Recent High | Estimated Cap | Money To Spend |
| SD Padres | $185,597,618 | $174,118,220 | $180,000,000 | -$5,597,618 |
It makes sense that they would have a higher projected payroll than they have ever had before, with all the young talent they have coming into arbitration. They have a high payroll and not much wiggle room this offseason.
Next we have two AL East teams that have less than $10M to spend according to projections.
| Team | 2022 Current | Recent High | Estimated Cap | Money To Spend |
| TB Rays | $70,466,668 | $76,872,384 | $80,000,000 | $9,533,332 |
| NY Yankees | $226,619,049 | $228,106,125 | $235,000,000 | $8,380,951 |
These teams payrolls could not be any more different. The Yankees are already over the luxury tax threshold of $210M and are still contenders to sign some of the biggest free agents this offseason. The Rays on the other hand, have never exceeded $80M on their payroll and are never contenders for the big name free agents. However, for neither of these teams having much money to spend (theoretically) this offseason, the most likely will remain quite active. Expect the Yankees to sign a big name free agent, and expect the Rays to probably blow your mind with an unexpected trade or two.
The next section is an assortment of lowish-payroll teams that aren’t likely to make any big splashes this offseason:
| Team | 2022 Current | Recent High | Estimated Cap | Money To Spend |
| COL Rockies | $89,353,833 | $145,248,500 | $130,000,000 | $40,646,167 |
| CIN Reds | $105,452,381 | $126,673,214 | $130,000,000 | $24,547,619 |
| OAK Athletics | $71,883,334 | $92,178,833 | $95,000,000 | $23,116,666 |
| ATL Braves | $118,575,000 | $131,400,310 | $140,000,000 | $21,425,000 |
| MIL Brewers | $104,226,628 | $122,530,400 | $125,000,000 | $20,773,372 |
| CHI White Sox | $156,133,334 | $128,716,666 | $170,000,000 | $13,866,666 |
The reigning world series champion Braves will most likely bring back Freddie Freeman. That will probably be the only $20M+ player that any of these 6 teams signs this offseason. The Reds have already started to cut salary by placing Wade Miley on waivers (who got picked up by the Cubs, not sure what the Reds are up to). The White Sox have a great young team and may make a move or two but I would not expect it to be a superstar. The Brewers need offensive help badly, but they also are a team with budget constraints and I am not sure what they will be able to pull off due to that. The A’s are, well, the A’s. They never spend much money but are always competitive nonetheless. The Rockies are a wild card with Trevor Story entering free agency. It is expected that they will let all of their free agents walk and continue a rebuild, but if they were really after a rebuild, why didn’t they trade Story for prospects at the deadline? The mystery in Colorado continues…
The next section is the big dogs. These are the big market teams that already have high payrolls and are going to continue to add to them this offseason.
| Team | 2022 Current | Recent High | Estimated Cap | Money To Spend |
| LA Angels | $118,888,094 | $181,966,096 | $210,000,000 | $91,111,906 |
| HOU Astros | $120,549,999 | $187,648,656 | $190,000,000 | $69,450,001 |
| TOR Blue Jays | $107,028,570 | $163,381,937 | $165,000,000 | $57,971,430 |
| PHI Phillies | $152,763,462 | $191,091,962 | $210,000,000 | $57,236,538 |
| NY Mets | $155,900,000 | $195,448,964 | $210,000,000 | $54,100,000 |
| LA Dodgers | $198,258,333 | $271,608,629 | $250,000,000 | $51,741,667 |
| BOS Red Sox | $164,925,000 | $236,171,429 | $210,000,000 | $45,075,000 |
| STL Cardinals | $126,246,166 | $163,542,500 | $170,000,000 | $43,753,834 |
The Blue Jays are borderline on whether or not they should be making this list. They aren’t a HUGE market team but they still are a large market with a very talented young team that could make a run, so I would expect them to transition to an even-bigger market team in the coming years. The Cardinals are a definite big market team with some budget room to add a few good players as always. The Red Sox I did a whole preview on, so go read that if you want the breakdown on them, but they will likely be looking to add a rotation arm and some other smaller pieces. The Dodgers have a slew of free agents departing this offseason that they need to take care of, starting with Clayton Kershaw. They will likely resign him, but I would project miss out on Seager. Scherzer could go either way, that is anybody’s guess. The Mets I think will make one big splash this offseason, perhaps two. I would think they will be watching the Kris Bryant market hard, as well as the new free agent, Seiya Suzuki. The Phillies would love to bring in a second big name to help out Harper, who knows who they will target. The Blue Jays will have to focus their attention at their two biggest free agents this offseason, Siemen and Robbie Ray. I doubt they can afford both of them, and my gut tells me they will try to keep that stellar infield together and offer Siemen a hefty contract to stay. Then they can always get some other decent starting pitching elsewhere in free agency. The Astros have Verlander and Greinke both up for free agency, as well as of course, Carlos Correa. They can’t bring them all back and my guess is that they let Correa go get the bag elsewhere and bring the other two back. The Angels need starting pitching. BAD. If they signed Scherzer, Robbie Ray, AND Justin Verlander, I wouldn’t be that shocked. They need it. Badly.
Next up is some more teams that are rebuilding and not likely to spend much money this offseason, although they have the theoretical room to do so.
| Team | 2022 Current | Recent High | Estimated Cap | Money To Spend |
| BAL Orioles | $19,000,000 | $164,326,172 | $165,000,000 | $146,000,000 |
| CHI Cubs | $68,160,000 | $203,079,488 | $210,000,000 | $141,840,000 |
| WAS Nationals | $89,738,095 | $197,203,691 | $210,000,000 | $120,261,905 |
| CLE Guardians | $35,050,000 | $134,851,565 | $135,000,000 | $99,950,000 |
| MIA Marlins | $42,800,000 | $115,406,101 | $120,000,000 | $77,200,000 |
| ARI DBacks | $59,275,000 | $131,565,116 | $130,000,000 | $70,725,000 |
| KC Royals | $74,950,000 | $143,005,817 | $145,000,000 | $70,050,000 |
| PIT Pirates | $41,300,000 | $99,807,004 | $100,000,000 | $58,700,000 |
| MIN Twins | $74,000,000 | $128,713,226 | $130,000,000 | $56,000,000 |
The Orioles have the most to spend out of anyone, almost entirely due to the fact that their current projected salary is literally less than one good player’s salary. They could certainly afford to bring someone in to be the veteran and face of the rebuild, but I wouldn’t count on it. Out of this list, I wouldn’t expect any big signings from the O’s, the Cubs, the Nats, the DBacks, the Pirates, or the Twins. The Cubs and Nats of course being a huge wildcard, due to their deep pockets, yet very underwhelming rosters. The Guardians, the Marlins, and the Royals all have young talented teams and COULD decide to make the jump to contention this year, but I am not projecting it. Would I be all that shocked to see one of them sign a big name to head up their rebuild? No.
Finally, we have my 4 teams to watch closest this offseason.
| Team | 2022 Current | Recent High | Estimated Cap | Money To Spend |
| TEX Rangers | $37,933,333 | $165,348,063 | $170,000,000 | $132,066,667 |
| SF Giants | $82,000,000 | $200,505,278 | $210,000,000 | $128,000,000 |
| DET Tigers | $84,350,000 | $199,750,600 | $210,000,000 | $125,650,000 |
| SEA Mariners | $44,475,000 | $157,903,943 | $160,000,000 | $115,525,000 |
The Rangers have a ton of money to spend, a new stadium, and some young talent that they can certainly build around. They made some savvy trades at the deadline, getting some good young talent for Kluber and Gallo, and I would like to see them bring in some key guys to start their rebuild off right.
The Giants won over 100 games this past season, but lost a ton of key guys to free agency. Nonetheless, the young core that helped them get their is still intact, and I think they will try to resign a couple of those pitchers that helped them this season, as well as bring in at least one marquee free agent, if not two.
The Tigers are the team I am most excited to watch for the next few seasons. They have some very exciting young talent, like one of my favorite pitchers, Casey Mize. They have prospect phenom Spencer Torkelson coming up soon. The Cabrera contract is a killer, but it won’t be around forever. They can afford to bring in some big names and start to make a run at the White Sox for the division. I just hope they don’t sign the player that I do expect them to sign, Carlos Correa.
The Mariners almost made the playoffs this past year with a payroll around $74,000,000. Imagine them spending some money, bringing in a couple big names to add to that young team and bringing in a payroll around $140M, even $150M. That could be a team that could overtake the Astros in the West. Keep an eye on them this offseason, we may see a rapid change of power in the West.
In case you are interested, here is a full breakdown of all of my spending ability projections;
| Team | 2022 Current | Recent High | Estimated Cap | Money To Spend |
| BAL Orioles | $19,000,000 | $164,326,172 | $165,000,000 | $146,000,000 |
| CHI Cubs | $68,160,000 | $203,079,488 | $210,000,000 | $141,840,000 |
| TEX Rangers | $37,933,333 | $165,348,063 | $170,000,000 | $132,066,667 |
| SF Giants | $82,000,000 | $200,505,278 | $210,000,000 | $128,000,000 |
| DET Tigers | $84,350,000 | $199,750,600 | $210,000,000 | $125,650,000 |
| WAS Nationals | $89,738,095 | $197,203,691 | $210,000,000 | $120,261,905 |
| SEA Mariners | $44,475,000 | $157,903,943 | $160,000,000 | $115,525,000 |
| CLE Guardians | $35,050,000 | $134,851,565 | $135,000,000 | $99,950,000 |
| LA Angels | $118,888,094 | $181,966,096 | $210,000,000 | $91,111,906 |
| MIA Marlins | $42,800,000 | $115,406,101 | $120,000,000 | $77,200,000 |
| ARI DBacks | $59,275,000 | $131,565,116 | $130,000,000 | $70,725,000 |
| KC Royals | $74,950,000 | $143,005,817 | $145,000,000 | $70,050,000 |
| HOU Astros | $120,549,999 | $187,648,656 | $190,000,000 | $69,450,001 |
| PIT Pirates | $41,300,000 | $99,807,004 | $100,000,000 | $58,700,000 |
| TOR Blue Jays | $107,028,570 | $163,381,937 | $165,000,000 | $57,971,430 |
| PHI Phillies | $152,763,462 | $191,091,962 | $210,000,000 | $57,236,538 |
| MIN Twins | $74,000,000 | $128,713,226 | $130,000,000 | $56,000,000 |
| NY Mets | $155,900,000 | $195,448,964 | $210,000,000 | $54,100,000 |
| LA Dodgers | $198,258,333 | $271,608,629 | $250,000,000 | $51,741,667 |
| BOS Red Sox | $164,925,000 | $236,171,429 | $210,000,000 | $45,075,000 |
| STL Cardinals | $126,246,166 | $163,542,500 | $170,000,000 | $43,753,834 |
| COL Rockies | $89,353,833 | $145,248,500 | $130,000,000 | $40,646,167 |
| CIN Reds | $105,452,381 | $126,673,214 | $130,000,000 | $24,547,619 |
| OAK Athletics | $71,883,334 | $92,178,833 | $95,000,000 | $23,116,666 |
| ATL Braves | $118,575,000 | $131,400,310 | $140,000,000 | $21,425,000 |
| MIL Brewers | $104,226,628 | $122,530,400 | $125,000,000 | $20,773,372 |
| CHI White Sox | $156,133,334 | $128,716,666 | $170,000,000 | $13,866,666 |
| TB Rays | $70,466,668 | $76,872,384 | $80,000,000 | $9,533,332 |
| NY Yankees | $226,619,049 | $228,106,125 | $235,000,000 | $8,380,951 |
| SD Padres | $185,597,618 | $174,118,220 | $180,000,000 | -$5,597,618 |
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