The 2021 Boston Red Sox were a roller coaster. Let’s be honest, I don’t think many of us expected them to make it within 2 games of the world series. Wild card spot? Okay, a few of us probably predicted that one. But beating both the yankees and then the rays to prove that we were the team to beat in the division? That not many people would have predicted. For what it’s worth, Chaim Bloom made some small moves that paid big dividends for the Sox this year, and he deserves credit for them. We had a season to be grateful for, even if there was some lows in it as well. But let’s be real. Have I ever just sat around and been happy about something that has happened? No. I am on to offseason mode. Already planning and projecting what I want the Sox to do this offseason. So, let’s get into it, shall we?
First off, I want to specify that this is NOT a prediction. This is what I WANT the Sox to do (within reason of course, they can’t have everything they want.) I will also be predicting all the MLB free agents soon too, as well as some big trades I am thinking we will see this winter. But enough of this, you all want to see my dream 2022 Red Sox roster.
The first section is of course dedicated to the players that WILL be here. There is little-to-zero chance that these players will be anywhere but in a Red Sox uniform for opening day 2022.
| Pos | Player | 2021 WAR | 2022 Salary | Signed Thru |
| SP | Chris Sale | 1.0 | $30,000,000 | 2024 minimum |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | 4.9 | $20,000,000 | 2025 minimum |
| SP | Nathan Eovaldi | 4.6 | $17,000,000 | 2022 |
| 2B/CF | Enrique Hernandez | 4.9 | $8,000,000 | 2022 |
| RP | Matt Barnes | 1.2 | $8,125,000 | 2023 minimum |
Three of these four were gigantic factors in the Red Sox’ 2021 success, posting 4.5+ WARs and doing consistently well all season. Not to mention their playoff performances, Keke leading the way by batting .408 with 5 homers this postseason. Bogie will be a lock to be starting at short for the Sox on opening day, and Keke will likely be leading off, whether in CF or playing 2B on opening day. As for the pitchers, everything hinges on the health of Chris Sale. Nasty Nate will be in the rotation for sure, but where? He could be the opening day starter and true #1 on the staff to start the season if Sale is not back at full health and the Sox don’t sign anyone. But it is more likely he will slot in at either #2 or #3 depending on how the offseason goes. For Sale, he is of course projected to be the surefire #1 in the rotation, but in my opinion it would be a blessing in disguise for him to have a true #1 come in this winter, allowing him to slide back to #2 and take some of the pressure off of a guy who is coming off a major surgery and a tough road back. He looked up and down in the postseason, but let’s hope he sticks with the ups for the 2022 season.
Next up, is a few players with various options for the upcoming 2022 season.
| Pos | Player | 2021 WAR | 2022 Salary | Option |
| DH | J.D. Martinez | 3.0 | $19,350,000 | Opt-Out |
| C | Christian Vazquez | 1.0 | $8,000,000 | Team Option |
| 1B/OF | Kyle Schwarber | 3.2 | $11,500,000 | Mutual Option |
| SP/RP | Martin Perez | 0.5 | $6,000,000 | Team Option |
The obvious omission here is Garrett Richards, who has a $8,500,000 team option with a $1,500,000 buyout. I am going to assume/hope that the Sox pay the buyout for Richards and get him out of town. Richards posted a 0.3 WAR, and while he could be effective at times, was hit extremely hard by the foreign substance crackdown and was openly upset when that occurred, causing a pretty bad look for himself. I would expect him to have a hard time finding work this winter.
Outside of Richards, I think all players with options for 2022 will be returning to the Sox. JD Martinez of course is the biggest, and he can opt-out of his remaining 3 years on his deal. However, after a relatively down year for him, I don’t see him commanding much more than $20M on the open market, and I think he is happy enough to stay with his guy Alex Cora and be comfortable here for the last few years of his deal.
Vazquez has been a solid starting catcher for us for years now. Having him at $8,000,000 for next year is a great price, and hopefully we can get Connor Wong up soon to start getting some playing time behind him, as he is likely the catcher of the future for the Red Sox.
Kyle. Schwarber. Oh boy. This is a weird one, isn’t it? On the one hand, after the monster season he had and how great he fit into Boston and their offense, he is a no-brainer at only $11.5M next year, right? Well, on the other hand, where do you play him? 1B is taken by the cheap and young Bobby Dalbec, and DH should be locked down by JD Martinez. Schwarber is a decent outfielder, but we also have quite a few options in the outfield. The Red Sox may choose to save the money for this reason and not pick up his option, but I would like to see them keep him on for one more year and make a run for the ship.
Then there is Martin Perez. Was he good in 2021? Not really. However, he gave us a lot of acceptable innings, both as a starter and out of the pen, and he is a lefty. He can be a lefty specialist out of the pen if needed, and he can also slide in as a starter if one of our starters gets hurt. For this reason, I think his flexibility is worth keeping him on board.
Next up we have the players who have yet to hit arbitration.
| Pos | Player | 2021 WAR | 2022 Salary | First Arb Year |
| RP | Darwinzon Hernandez | 0.9 | $650,000 | 2023 |
| 1B | Bobby Dalbec | 0.2 | $650,000 | 2024 |
| SP | Tanner Houck | 1.6 | $650,000 | 2024 |
| RP | Garrett Whitlock | 2.6 | $650,000 | 2027 |
These guys will very likely be on the roster. Unless the Sox make a big splash in free agency, Bobby Dalbec will be the starting first baseman on opening day. Tanner Houck will likely fit somewhere into the starting rotation, although that of course can change as well. Hernandez is a wild card, he could be the year-long closer, he could be a long reliever, or he could end up not on the roster. If I were to wager a bet, however, I would bet that he will be on the roster in some form.
Next let’s take a look at the guys eligible for arbitration that are, in my opinion, locks to settle on something to stay with the team.
| Pos | Player | 2021 WAR | Projected Salary | FA Year |
| SP | Nick Pivetta | 2.6 | $3,200,000 | 2025 |
| RP | Josh Taylor | 1.3 | $1,100,000 | 2026 |
| 3B | Rafael Devers | 3.5 | $11,100,000 | 2024 |
| OF | Alex Verdugo | 2.2 | $3,200,000 | 2025 |
| OF | Hunter Renfroe | 2.4 | $7,600,000 | 2024 |
| C | Kevin Plawecki | 0.2 | $2,000,000 | 2023 |
| 2B | Christian Arroyo | 1.4 | $1,100,000 | 2025 |
This is quite a list. Some very key guys here, as well as some notable bench guys who will be very needed down the stretch. Let’s go through them one by one.
Nick Pivetta had a breakout season this year, going 9-8 with a 4.53 ERA. Those numbers sound pretty average, and let’s be honest, his numbers were pretty average. But anybody that followed the Sox this year knows that Pivetta had some really good outings this year and was a pretty consistent starter. He also came in and got a save late in the year, proving Alex Cora’s trust in him. He will no doubt have a spot in the Sox rotation this upcoming season, and likely will have his spot until he reaches free agency in 2025.
Josh Taylor has been a solid relief pitcher for the Red Sox ever since he debuted in 2019. Not much crazy to say here, he will be one of the workhorse right-handed arms in the Sox pen.
Rafael Devers. He’s the man. This man is the future of the Red Sox, at least in my opinion. He is barely 25 years old, and he has already hit 20+ homers in all 3 of his full seasons he has played. This year, he stepped it up to a slash line of .279/38/113. His season rivaled his 2018 season, where he hit .311 and hit 32 homers, but led the league with 54 doubles. He still hasn’t hit his peak yet. There’s only one way Devers doesn’t have an MVP season at some point in the next few seasons. If Mike Trout remains to be super-human and wins it every season.
Alex Verdugo, who unfortunately for him will always be known as the main return for Mookie Betts. Poor kid. He really is a good outfielder. It’s not his fault he can’t compete with a guy like Mookie Betts.
Hunter Renfroe has been a value. The Sox signed him for just over 3 million after he was cut by the Rays last offseason. There was doubt as to what Renfroe could provide, and the Sox were criticized for bringing him in to play the outfield for a high payroll team such as the Red Sox. Renfroe proved the haters wrong this year though, batting .259 with 31 HRs and 96 RBIs for the year. That’s not a bad season, a below average batting average and even more below average on base percentage, but a good amount of power and 96 RBIs is nothing to shake a stick at. He also racked up 16 outfield assists as the everyday right-fielder. At a modest salary, it would be a shock to see the Sox not bring him back.
Kevin Plawecki, probably the best backup catcher in the majors. He is a lifelong backup and likely will never get a shot to be a starter, barring a major injury to Vasquez. However, for a backup, he is quite productive. This past season he batted .287 over his 157 ABs. He certainly isn’t anything amazing, but for a backup catcher, you can’t expect much more than Kevin Plawecki will provide.
Finally, Christian Arroyo. Another Chaim Bloom gem. Arroyo was claimed off of waivers by the Sox at the end of last season and has been a contributor ever since. In 57 games in 2021, he racked up a 1.4 WAR, which would put him on pace to be at roughly 4.2 WAR for a full season. That is pretty incredible for a guy claimed off of waivers. He had 0 errors playing 2nd base, and batted .262 for the year. Nothing incredible, but a solid starter-level second baseman when healthy.
So let’s recap what we have for a roster so far;
| Pos | Player | 2021 WAR | 2022 Salary |
| TOTAL SALARY | $167,100,000 | ||
| SP | Chris Sale | 1 | $30,000,000 |
| SP | Nathan Eovaldi | 4.6 | $17,000,000 |
| SP | Tanner Houck | 1.6 | $650,000 |
| SP | Nick Pivetta | 2.6 | $3,200,000 |
| SP | |||
| RP | Darwinzon Hernandez | 0.9 | $650,000 |
| RP | Josh Taylor | 1.3 | $1,100,000 |
| RP | Matt Barnes | 1.2 | $8,125,000 |
| RP | Garrett Whitlock | 2.6 | $650,000 |
| RP | |||
| RP | |||
| SP/RP | Martin Perez | 0.5 | $6,000,000 |
| C | Christian Vazquez | 1 | $8,000,000 |
| 1B | Bobby Dalbec | 0.2 | $650,000 |
| 2B | Christian Arroyo | 1.4 | $1,100,000 |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | 4.9 | $20,000,000 |
| 3B | Rafael Devers | 3.5 | $11,100,000 |
| LF | Alex Verdugo | 2.2 | $3,200,000 |
| CF | Enrique Hernandez | 4.9 | $8,000,000 |
| RF | Hunter Renfroe | 2.4 | $7,600,000 |
| DH | J.D. Martinez | 3 | $19,350,000 |
| 1B/OF/DH | Kyle Schwarber | 3.2 | $11,500,000 |
| Backup C | Kevin Plawecki | 0.2 | $2,000,000 |
| BENCH | |||
| BENCH | |||
| David Price Payment | $16,000,000 | ||
With the payment the Sox will have to make to the Dodgers for David Price, we are already up to just over 176 million projected payroll with 7 slots open. The luxury tax threshold for 2022 is projected at $210 million. That gives about 34 million in wiggle room to fill out the rest of this 26 man roster. First let’s fill up some bullpen spots with in-house options that we hadn’t penciled in yet.
| Pos | Player | 2021 WAR | Projected Salary | FA Year |
| RP | Ryan Brasier | 0.2 | $1,400,000 | 2024 |
| RP | Yacksel Rios | 0.4 | $875,000 | 2025 |
Rios was acquired last year from the Mariners. The other man is Ryan Brasier, who has been a member of the Sox bullpen since 2018, and has had his ups and downs, but will likely remain a member of the bullpen when healthy. Neither of these guys are anything to write home about, but they are young, cheap, and bullpen arms that Cora trusts.
Before we look at who the Sox should bring in in free agency, let’s take a quick look at who they are losing (or potentially losing) this year due to free agency.
| Pos | Player | 2021 WAR | 2021 Salary |
| RP | Adam Ottavino | 0.8 | $9,000,000 |
| RP | Garrett Richards | 0.3 | $8,500,000 |
| SP | Eduardo Rodriguez | 1.8 | $8,300,000 |
| SS | José Iglesias | -0.6 | $3,500,000 |
| OF | Franchy Cordero | -0.7 | $800,000 |
| UTIL | Danny Santana | -0.3 | $100,000 |
| UTIL | Travis Shaw | -0.6 | $100,000 |
Eduardo Rodriguez is the big loss on this list. He leaves a gaping whole open at starting pitcher that needs to be filled and also drops a solid left handed arm which is key as well. Besides E-Rod, Ottavino is the only other name of note here as he is a loss the Sox will definitely need to fill in some way shape or form.
This brings us down to the final 3 spots. A starting pitcher and two bench slots. We have roughly 40 million in salary room to make these 3 slots the best we can. Let’s take a look at the 3 guys that I would choose to fit these 3 slots;
| Pos | Player | 2021 WAR | Projected Contract | AAV |
| SP | Robbie Ray | 6.7 | 5 years, $135 million | $27M |
| UTIL | Danny Santana | -0.3 | 1 year, $1 million | $1M |
| UTIL | Travis Shaw | -0.6 | 1 year, $1 million | $1M |
Really all it is is one guy. Santana and Shaw are both dirt cheap, they were here last year and they know the team, and they can come fill in in bench roles and play multiple positions around the diamond. It’s really all about Robbie Ray. It could be Carlos Rodon, or Max Scherzer, or any number of other quality starters. I picked Robbie Ray because he is a power strikeout heavy lefty. Sound familiar? Yeah, he is a lot like Chris Sale in a lot of ways and that is a big reason why I think the Sox would love to take a shot on him to replace E-Rod in the rotation.
Let’s take a look at the final roster that that brings us to:
| Pos | Player | 2021 WAR | 2022 Salary |
| TOTAL SALARY | $207,150,000 | ||
| SP | Chris Sale | 1 | $30,000,000 |
| SP | Nathan Eovaldi | 4.6 | $17,000,000 |
| SP | Tanner Houck | 1.6 | $650,000 |
| SP | Nick Pivetta | 2.6 | $3,200,000 |
| SP | Robbie Ray* | 6.7 | $27,000,000 |
| RP | Darwinzon Hernandez | 0.9 | $650,000 |
| RP | Josh Taylor | 1.3 | $1,100,000 |
| RP | Ryan Brasier | 0.2 | $1,400,000 |
| RP | Yacksel Rios | 0.4 | $875,000 |
| RP | Garrett Whitlock | 2.6 | $650,000 |
| RP | Matt Barnes | 1.2 | $8,125,000 |
| SP/RP | Martin Perez | 0.5 | $6,000,000 |
| C | Christian Vazquez | 1 | $8,000,000 |
| 1B | Bobby Dalbec | 0.2 | $650,000 |
| 2B | Christian Arroyo | 1.4 | $1,100,000 |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | 4.9 | $20,000,000 |
| 3B | Rafael Devers | 3.5 | $11,100,000 |
| LF | Alex Verdugo | 2.2 | $3,200,000 |
| CF | Enrique Hernandez | 4.9 | $8,000,000 |
| RF | Hunter Renfroe | 2.4 | $7,600,000 |
| DH | J.D. Martinez | 3 | $19,350,000 |
| 1B/OF/DH | Kyle Schwarber | 3.2 | $11,500,000 |
| Backup C | Kevin Plawecki | 0.2 | $2,000,000 |
| UTIL | Danny Santana | -0.3 | $1,000,000 |
| IF | Travis Shaw | -0.6 | $1,000,000 |
| David Price Payment | $16,000,000 | ||
Essentially it’s the same roster that got us to the ALCS this season, but replace E-Rod with the likely AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, and add a healthy Chris Sale into the mix. Not to mention a full season of Schwarber and Houck. There’s also Jarren Duran waiting to get called up, as well as Tristan Casas if Dalbec isn’t able to figure it out. That’s a future I can get behind.
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Image by Eveline de Bruin from Pixabay
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